Research & Insights #26

#COVID19 – “Over the last three years, you have been subjected to the most massive harmonized, globally coordinated propaganda campaign in the history of the Western world, full stop.” Robert Malone

For the American molecular biologist, Robert Malone, we have been witnessing for the last 3 years a 5th generation war, or psychological warfare, through the “Covid Crisis”. In a conference held on January 21, 2023 in Sweden, he explained how the issue of this war is to shape, control and capture your thoughts, your emotions and your beliefs. “The basic idea is that in the modern era, wars are not fought by armies or guerillas, but in the minds of common citizens. Your mind is the new battlefield. This is not hyperbole. ” He reminds us that in the US, management of this crisis was not primarily led by social and health services, but by the Department of Defense.

#NordStream – “Nord Stream was destroyed by the US and Norway” Seymour Hersh. 

American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has just revealed how the Nord Stream gas pipelines were allegedly sabotaged. The man is at the origin of many revelations, such as the acts of torture at Abu Ghraib and the massacre of Mỹ Lai in Vietnam, an investigation for which he obtained a Pulitzer Prize. According to him, US Navy divers placed explosives under the Nord Stream gas pipelines last summer. “On September 26, 2022, a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane made a seemingly routine flight and dropped a sonar buoy. The signal spread underwater, initially to Nord Stream 2 and then on to Nord Stream 1. A few hours later, high-powered C4 explosives were triggered and three of the four pipelines were put out of commission.” 

#EconomicSanctions – Who benefits from Russian oil sanctions? 

Russia’s finance minister announced that the country’s oil export revenues fell 40% year-on-year in January, despite a stable export volume. Western sanctions seem to be working because they are forcing Russia to offer significant discounts to Chinese and Indian buyers. These discounts would be US$15 to US$20 per barrel of crude, according to Reuters. For the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the price cap reduced Moscow’s revenues by US$8 billion in January alone. Former Gazprom Neft strategy director Sergey Vakulenko disagrees: “Judging by customs statistics, some of the profit was captured by refiners in India and China, but the main beneficiaries must be Russian oil shippers, intermediaries and oil companies.”

#MonetaryPolicy – Russia’s Central Bank keeps its interest rate at 7.5% and its nationwide ban on crypto-currencies. 

Russia’s central bank kept its key interest rate at 7.5%. It said it may have to raise it this year as a growing budget deficit, labor shortages and a weaker ruble pose inflationary risks. It maintained its year-end inflation forecast at 5-7%, with a return to its 4% inflation target in 2024. The bank expects GDP growth between -1 and +1% in 2023 and +0.5 and +2.5% in 2024. Regarding crypto-currencies, President Elvira Nabiullina said that the institution remains opposed to their use in the domestic market, but is ready to allow them for settlements with foreign countries.

#Journalism – After closing Russian media RT & Sputnik, the French government threatens C8 and CNews. 

Rima Abdul Malak, the French Minister of Culture, speaking on radio France Inter on Thursday, February 9, said she was “worried” about “threats to freedom of expression and creation” of channels CNews and C8. She asked the television regulator Arcom (ex-CSA) to intervene against the channels CNews and C8, accused, among others, of not respecting their obligation of pluralism. The Minister of Culture cites “a number of examples” that have occurred “in recent months and years” within the media group owned by Vincent Bolloré. She said that Arcom could withdraw the radio frequency made available to them if these channels did not meet their obligations.

#EndofDollar – The five factors that threaten the hegemony of the US dollar according to Ray Dalio. 

The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, recently published a note outlining his views on the evolution of the international monetary system from 1945 to the present. In his opinion, there are five trends that weaken the US dollar and the stock of dollar-denominated debt:
1) The supply of dollar-denominated debt issued in the markets is far greater than the demand. To compensate for this shortfall, the US central bank has been buying large amounts of debt with the money it has been printing since 2008 (“quantitative easing”);
2) The growing desire of foreign countries to diversify the assets of their central banks and sovereign wealth funds away from the US dollar. These countries are too concentrated in dollars and are cautiously pursuing diversification;
3) Foreign countries are increasingly doing more trade and financial transactions with China than with the United States. Therefore, it is natural, both from China’s and other countries’ points of view, to denominate more transactions in Chinese RMB;
4) US sanctions are causing some foreign holders of dollar-denominated bonds to fear that their assets will be sanctioned;
5) Political and social conflicts in the US, particularly over debt limit management, are damaging the credibility of the country and its policies.
Ray Dalio considers that “the probability of a major restructuring of debt assets and liabilities denominated in the major reserve currencies (dollar, euro, yen) over the next ten years is about 60%.”